Strategic Electoral Ridings

Which ridings have the best chance at moving us toward 40% representation?

It’s not just about electing more women and gender-diverse leaders, but the leaders who support our progress towards equality.

Still, identifying districts with stronger chances for diverse representation helps illuminate pathways to inclusive leadership.

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KEY

* Incumbent Not Running Again / New District / Vacant

(1) - High Potential Riding

(2) - Moderate Potential Riding

Not Listed - Low Potential Riding

TOTAL

Ridings Rated 1: 112
Ridings Rated 2: 38
Total Potential Ridings: 150

135 seats = 40%
150/338 seats identified = 44%

Learn more about the scoring structure below.

  • Last Modified April 17 2025:

    Southern Rural Alberta:

    • Lethbridge (1)

    Northern Rural Alberta:

    • Fort McMurray—Cold Lake (1)

    • Lakeland (1)

    Edmonton:

    • Edmonton Centre (1)

    • Edmonton Griesbach (1)

    • Edmonton Manning (2)

    • Edmonton Strathcona (1)

    Calgary:

    • Calgary Midnapore (1)

    • Calgary Nose Hill (1)

  • Last Modified April 17 2025:

    BC Interior:

    • Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies (2)

    • Kelowna (2)

    • Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay (1)*

    • Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee (2)*

    Fraser Valley and Eastern Lower Mainland:

    • Cloverdale—Langley City (1)

    Surrey, Richmond & Delta:

    • Delta (2)*

    • South Surrey—White Rock (1)

    Northern Mainland:

    • Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam (2)

    • Port Moody—Coquitlam (1)

    Vancouver:

    • Vancouver Centre (1)

    • Vancouver East (1)

    • Vancouver Kingsway (2)

    Vancouver Island:

    • Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke (1)*

    • Nanaimo—Ladysmith (1)

    • North Island—Powell River (1)*

    • Saanich—Gulf Islands (1)

    • Victoria (1)

  • Last Modified April 17 2025:

    • Rural Manitoba:

      • Churchill—Keewatinook Aski (1)

      Winnipeg:

      • Elmwood—Transcona (2)

      • Kildonan—St. Paul (1)

      • St. Boniface—St. Vital (2)*

      • Winnipeg Centre (1)

      • Winnipeg South (2)

  • Last modified April 17 2025:

    • Miramichi-Grand Lake (1)*

    • Moncton-Dieppe (1)

    • Saint John-St. Croix (2)

  • Last Modified April 17 2025:

    • Central Newfoundland (2)

    • Labrador (2)*

    • Long Range Mountains (1)*

    • St. John’s East (1)

  • Last modified April 17 2025:

    • Northwest Territories (1)*

  • Last modified April 17 2025:

    • Cumberland - Colchester (2)

    • Halifax West (1)

    • South Shore - St. Maragarets (1)

    • Sydney - Glace Bay (Almost 2)

  • Last modified April 17 2025:

    • Nunavut (1)

  • Last Modified March 25 2025:

    Ottawa:

    • Kanata (2)

    • Orléans (1)

    • Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester (1)

    • Ottawa West—Nepean (1)

    Eastern Ontario:

    • Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke (1)

    • Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga (1)

    • Lanark—Frontenac (Almost 2)

    • Prescott—Russell—Cumberland (1)*

    Central Ontario:

    • Peterborough (1)


    Southern Durham:

    • Ajax (1)*

    • Oshawa (1)*

    • Pickering-Brooklin (1)*

    York Region:

    • Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill (1)

    • King—Vaughan (1)

    • Markham—Stouffville (1)

    • Newmarket—Aurora (1)*

    • Thornhill (1)

    Scarborough:

    • Scarborough—Agincourt (1)

    • Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East (1)

    North York:

    • Eglinton—Lawrence (1)*

    • York Centre (1)

    Central Toronto & East York:

    • Beaches—East York (2)

    • Davenport (1)

    • Spadina—Harbourfront (1)*

    • Toronto Centre (2)

    • Toronto—Danforth (1)

    • Toronto St. Paul’s (1)

    • University—Rosedale (1)

    Etobicoke & York:

    • Humber River—Black Creek (1)

    Brampton:

    • Brampton North—Caledon (1)

    • Brampton South (1)

    • Brampton West (1)

    Mississauga:

    • Mississauga East—Cooksville (2)

    • Mississauga—Erin Mills (1)

    • Mississauga—Streetsville (1)

    Halton:

    • Burlington (1)

    • Milton East—Halton Hills South (2)

    • Oakville East (1)

    • Oakville West (1)*

    Hamilton & Niagara:

    • Hamilton Mountain (1)

    • Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas (2)

    • Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake (Almost 2)

    Midwestern Ontario:

    • Cambridge (1)

    • Guelph (1)*

    • Haldimand—Norfolk (1)

    • Kitchener South—Hespeler (1)

    • Waterloo (1)

    Southwestern Ontario:

    • Essex (almost 2)

    • London Centre (almost 2)

    • London—Fanshawe (1)

    • London West (1)

    • Middlesex—London (1)

    • Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong (1)

    Northern Ontario:

    • Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk (1)*

    • Kenora—Kiiwetinoong (2)

    • Nipissing—Timiskaming (1)*

    • Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma (2)

    • Sudbury (1)

    • Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt (2)

    • Thunder Bay—Superior North (1)

  • Last modified April 17 2025:

    • Cardigan (2)*

    • Charlottetown (2)

  • Last Modified March 25 2025:

    Eastern Quebec:

    • Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis (1)

    • Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj (1)

    • Gaspésie—The Magdalen Islands—Listuguj (1)

    North Shore & Saguenay

    • North Shore—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan (1)

    • Jonquière (2)

    • Lac-Saint-Jean (1)

    • Montmorency—Charlevoix (1)


    Quebec City Region:

    • Beauport—Limoilou (1)

    • Louis-Hébert (2)

    Central Quebec:

    • N/A

    Eastern Townships:

    • Beauce (2)

    • Compton-Stanstead (1)*

    • Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton (Almost 2)

    • Shefford (1)

    • Sherbrooke (1)

    Montérégie:

    • Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon (1)

    • Brossard—Saint-Lambert (1)

    • Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville (1)*

    • Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne (1)

    • Saint John (1)

    Northern Montreal and Laval:

    • Ahuntsic-Cartierville (1)

    • Alfred-Pellan (2)

    • Papineau (1)

    • Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel (1)

    • Vimy (1)

    Eastern Montreal:

    • Hochelaga—Rosemont-East (1)*

    • Honoré Mercier (2)*

    • Laurier—Sainte-Marie (2)

    Western Montreal:

    • Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle (1)

    • Our Lady of Grace—Westmount (1)

    • Outremont (1)

    • Saint-Laurent (1)

    Laurentians:

    • Laurentides—Labelle (1)

    • The Upper Countries (1)*

    • Thousand Island River (1)

    • North River (1)*

    • Terrebonne (1)

    • Therese-De Blainville (1)*

    Outaouais & Northern Quebec:

    • Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou (1)

    • Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi (1)

  • Last Modified April 17 2025:

    Southern Saskatchewan:

    • Yorkton—Melville (1)

    Northern Saskatchewan:

    • Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake (1)

    • Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek (1)

    • Saskatoon West (2)

  • Last modified April 17 2025:

    • N/A

Scoring System

Parties focused on: Liberal, Conservative, NDP, Green, Bloc Québécois

    • Male incumbent running for a 2nd term: -2

    • Male incumbent running for a 3rd+ term: -3

    • Woman/GD* incumbent running for a 2nd term: +3

    • Woman/GD incumbent running for a 3rd+ term: +4

    • Open seat (no incumbent running): +2

    • Woman/GD candidate has run federally before (but not elected): +1

    • Male candidate has run federally before (but not elected): -1

    • Woman/GD candidate was MP in the past but lost seat and is running again: +1

    • Male candidate was MP in the past but lost seat and is running again: -1

    • Woman/GD candidate has run and won at provincial/territorial/municipal level before: +1

    • Male candidate has run and won at provincial/territorial/municipal level before: -1

    • Party of a woman/GD candidate has won in past 3 federal elections: +1 per woman/GD candidate

    • Woman/GD candidate’s party came within 10% of the winning party in the last election: +2 per woman/GD candidate

    • Ratio of women/GD candidates to men candidates in major parties (normalized to ±2 range): -2 to +2

    • Previous women/GD representation in the riding (past 10 years): +1

Scoring Interpretation

Based on the above key…

(1) - High Potential Ridings scored +5 or higher.
(2) - Moderate Potential Ridings scored +3 or +4

  • High chance of electing a woman/GD candidate. The district has strong historical, structural, and political conditions favouring gender-diverse representation.

  • A woman/GD candidate has a good chance but still faces some competition or structural barriers.

  • Conditions are somewhat favourable, but the race could go either way depending on candidate strength and voter support.

  • The environment is not outright hostile, but there are more barriers than advantages.

  • Significant structural barriers exist, such as a strong male incumbent, party dynamics, or historical trends against electing women/GD candidates.

  • The district is highly resistant to change—long-term male incumbents, weak party competitiveness, or a lack of women/GD candidates make it very unlikely.

*GD = Gender-Diverse